Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Western States!

Guess how many WS100 finishes these people have? Give up?

Come hear them talk about it on June 23rd at the Squaw Valley Lodge. 6:30pm.

Happy Hour hosted by yours truly!


Grae Van Hooser said...

I'd really like to hear what Jim Scott's (top photo) "secret" to lottery luck is. I believe he is at about 21 sub 24 hour finishes in a row! Aside from being in the top ten one year with his brother Dave (not the triathlete), he has been "chosen" all those other years! That is a world record in and of itself! What are the odds on that? It looks like he may eclipse Twiet's all-time time record for sub 24's! Pretty amazing in of itself.

Grae Van Hooser said...

... and what's the brand of the beer? Is it the Squaw Valley price of $100 a bottle, or real world prices:).

Brett said...

I believe odds are multiplicative cumulatively and additive individually.

That is to say, if the odds of getting picked in the lottery were 1/4th in 2010 and 1/4th in 2009, then:
a) The odds of getting picked BOTH years were 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16.
b) The odds of getting picked at least once were 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.

If the odds were 1 in 4 for the last 4 years, then the odds of getting picked all 4 years were 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 = 1 in 256.

Its been a long time since I sat through statistics classes, but I believe this is correct.

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