I'd really like to hear what Jim Scott's (top photo) "secret" to lottery luck is. I believe he is at about 21 sub 24 hour finishes in a row! Aside from being in the top ten one year with his brother Dave (not the triathlete), he has been "chosen" all those other years! That is a world record in and of itself! What are the odds on that? It looks like he may eclipse Twiet's all-time time record for sub 24's! Pretty amazing in of itself.
I believe odds are multiplicative cumulatively and additive individually.
That is to say, if the odds of getting picked in the lottery were 1/4th in 2010 and 1/4th in 2009, then: a) The odds of getting picked BOTH years were 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16. b) The odds of getting picked at least once were 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.
If the odds were 1 in 4 for the last 4 years, then the odds of getting picked all 4 years were 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 = 1 in 256.
Its been a long time since I sat through statistics classes, but I believe this is correct.
Guess how many WS100 finishes these people have? Give up?
6 comments:
I'd really like to hear what Jim Scott's (top photo) "secret" to lottery luck is. I believe he is at about 21 sub 24 hour finishes in a row! Aside from being in the top ten one year with his brother Dave (not the triathlete), he has been "chosen" all those other years! That is a world record in and of itself! What are the odds on that? It looks like he may eclipse Twiet's all-time time record for sub 24's! Pretty amazing in of itself.
... and what's the brand of the beer? Is it the Squaw Valley price of $100 a bottle, or real world prices:).
I believe odds are multiplicative cumulatively and additive individually.
That is to say, if the odds of getting picked in the lottery were 1/4th in 2010 and 1/4th in 2009, then:
a) The odds of getting picked BOTH years were 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16.
b) The odds of getting picked at least once were 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2.
If the odds were 1 in 4 for the last 4 years, then the odds of getting picked all 4 years were 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 = 1 in 256.
Its been a long time since I sat through statistics classes, but I believe this is correct.
It won't work in fact, that's what I believe.
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