My little poll received 180 votes and here are the results (# of votes in parentheses):
1. Anton Krupicka (70)
2. Scott Jurek (38)
3. Someone Else (23)
4. Dave Mackey (19)
5. Hal Koerner (14)
6. Brian Morrison (9)
7. Graham Cooper (3)
8. Erik Skaden (2)
9. Lon Freeman (2)
Interesting to note that the only person on the list who has yet to start the race received the largest number of votes. Perhaps this will be the first time since 1999 that a first-time runner wins? It hasn't happened very often. Food for thought.
Since it has become such a big accomplishment anyone want to take a stab at predicting the top-10?
I'll put up a poll for the women's race tomorrow and the Masters' race next week.
20 comments:
In defense of my illogical prediction of Tony K, I did based on the fact that:
a) He has never lost a single race that I know of.
b) He actually tapered for WS last year (a rarity for him).
c) He drove out there and spent a few days running the course (did 200 miles that week). A quote from him, "This will definitely be the longest/mellowest taper I've ever done before a 100 mile race."...
Brett,
No need to defend your prediction. Anton certainly has talent, drive and cred. You don't win Leadville twice without that. The only reason I pointed out the "first timer" thing is that it's a rarity at Western States. That said, assuming he stays healthy he'll be the guy to beat and, in benign conditions, should give the Course Record a shot especially given the fact that the course has been groomed so well over the past few years.
AJW
For the simple fact that it hasn't happened since 99 makes all the more reason that it WILL happen sooner than later.
In my own non-expert opinion - I think Tony will be the first to go under 15 hours! I think your next poll after the women should be the predicted winning time for the men. Maybe a keg of PBR to the poll winner??
I can't wait to watch it on my computer! AND, and, and I can't wait fer you to buy me a draft PBR at WTC...
AJW,
Why isn't my home town girl, Jenny Capel in the women's pole? She was second overall at Lean Horse in 16:55. Just an hour or so behind Jon "rocket" Olsen. Sure, a "flat" 100 mile. But "100 miles is a 100 miles" - insightful aren't I. Plus she has a previous states finish to her cred.
Grae,
You are right, I totally missed Jenny. My guess is that she has received the two "someone else" votes. She is certainly a contender.
AJW
My own guess is that:
1)Anton wins in low 15 hrs
2)Kyle gets in and takes 3rd
3)Mackey doesn't run WS but sets another course record on a popular race (not going out on a limb)
4)Geoff Roes surprizes and takes 4th 5)AJW breaks over 40 record
6)An "unknown" takes 2nd
7)Brian Morrison puts in a good run and places 5th
8)Jon Olsen runs his best race for 6th
9)Scott Jurek takes 7th in 16:30ish
10)Hal Koerner comes within 10 mins of Scott for 8th
11)Eric Skaden 9th
12)AJW takes 10th in a fast 16:55
Go ahead and bash me til I'm numb. Of course, anything can obviously happen.
tl
Footfeathers,
Nice comment and if 16:55 only gets 10th place this will truly be a run for the ages
Thanks for weighing in! Anybody else want to take a stab at a top-10 prediction?
AJW
Scott Jurek
Dave Mackey
Erik Skaden
Hal Koerner
Graham Cooper
AJW
Jeff Riley
Brian Morrison
Mike Wolfe
Jon Olsen
Grae,
Pretty interesting top-10. Interesting nod toward experience. Only one guy out of the ten on your list has not been to The Dance before. And, all of them are finishers except, of course, Brian. I hope he can get there this year!
And, Mackey will be tough assuming he shows up.
AJW
I predict two men from Eugene, OR in the top ten men.
Craig,
Two from Eugene in the top-10? Wow, them's bold words. But, taking the bait, here is my ranking of Eugenians who are in the dance:
1. Riley
2. Olmstead
3. Wolfe (if healthy)
4. Thornley (3rd if MonkeyBoy's on the DL)
5. Braje (will go higher if he proves himself over 50 miles)
All bet's are off, of course, if Ticer gets in:)
Who'd I miss?
AJW
PS -- I predict one runner from the great state of Idaho in the top-10.
If Mackey's in, then he's my pick to in. He's so quiet and modest about his running that you likely won't know he's racing ws until the start of it.
There are people who run in Idaho! Wow! I just thought everyone in Idaho circled around the blue turf in Boise and watched Broncos play:) I just hope when you pass me it isn't because I am bent over reliving a food mistake at the last aid station. Happy Trails!
You missed a little guy we call lowercase. We also may get one more in via the Montrail Cup. Plus we have KRW and Derek Snelling.
And, as you should know, two from Eugene has happened before and not long ago.
FF,
Good point about Mackey. I still think his descent at Pike's Peak in 2007 was sick.
Jon,
I am sure you'll have all your stomach issues sorted in time for the Big Dance and I won't be passing you after Green Gate
And, LB,
I can't believe I forgot Lewis! Assuming he's healthy and doesn't get lost I'd squeeze him in between Olmstead and Wolfe on my Eugene list.
And yes, I remember that Ticer and you both cracked the top-10 in the same year. What place did I get that year?
I left Tony off because everybody picked him. His health is a big question mark, but it appears he has learned from the past. I wish him well.Will Mackey show? I have lc and LB on that top ten bubble that's more like a balloon. lc in if his darling little girl inspires him, out if he can't control his beer intake during the race. LB in if he disassociates the pain by mentally drawing up another AJW top ten list, minus if he wears those damn arm panties in late June in the Sierra.
Actually there are so many capable runner's that predicting a top ten is a crap shoot at best.
Grae is right, the field is so talented and so deep that predicting a top ten is littlre more than a calculated crapshoot. I can give you ten names, but would not be surprised if only 3-4 of them finished in the top 10.
Having said that, if I really had to predict who would reliably finish in the top ten, they would be:
1. Erik Skaden and Graham Cooper.
2. Andy Jones-Wilkins
3. Scott Jurek
4. Hal Koerner.
From his blog, Anton is very focused on WS this year and I really hope Kyle gets in to shake things up. Sentimentally, I would really like to see an international runner like Jez Bragg or Macro Olmo do well and crack the top 5. That is a really tall order against huge talent and local knowledge of the US runners.
Cheers, Paul
My dark horse to crack the top ten is Sean Meissner. He's shown he's got everything but a solid stomach. When he figures that out, he'll make some noise.
1. 3rd at Robison Flat a motivated pass at just before No Hands Jurek (new course record)
2. A big gap at Forrest Hill fading Anton (well ahead of course record).
3. A closing and smilin' Hal in (16 flat).
4. Another solid race Skaden.
5. 2nd at Robinson Flat chased the rabbit Anton too long and faded Freeman.
6. Played it smart Cooper.
7. You forgot about me Riley.
8. Enough people frag from the Anton pace that I passed them all AJW.
9. Another Team Eugene Olmstead.
10. Can't bet against running another smart race Thornley.
The pace will be torrid and a lot of fast good people will take the bait and frag and DNF -- and the more experienced WS specialist will move into the top 15 after FH. Eugene runners pack run..watch them late..
Anton is just too fast for Scott early, he knows that and Scott will run a masterful race and Anton will either come back to him...or he won't. Scott will hammer down Cal 1 and 2 closing the gap for a late pass, if he doesn't, it because Anton is close to 15 hours. Hal will beat a lot of people, he's underrated, you hear Anton, Jurek, Mackey, don't forget about Hal. Mackey likely won't run....if he does, he'll run with Anton early and blow up...
If Anton runs to his full potential, nobody will beat him...I give him a 1 in 3 chance of running his race...
-CB
1. 3rd at Robison Flat a motivated pass at just before No Hands Jurek (new course record)
2. A big gap at Forrest Hill fading Anton (well ahead of course record).
3. A closing and smilin' Hal in (16 flat).
4. Another solid race Skaden.
5. 2nd at Robinson Flat chased the rabbit Anton too long and faded Freeman.
6. Played it smart Cooper.
7. You forgot about me Riley.
8. Enough people frag from the Anton pace that I passed them all AJW.
9. Another Team Eugene Olmstead.
10. Can't bet against running another smart race Thornley.
The pace will be torrid and a lot of fast good people will take the bait and frag and DNF -- and the more experienced WS specialist will move into the top 15 after FH. Eugene runners pack run..watch them late..
Anton is just too fast for Scott early, he knows that and Scott will run a masterful race and Anton will either come back to him...or he won't. Scott will hammer down Cal 1 and 2 closing the gap for a late pass, if he doesn't, it because Anton is close to 15 hours. Hal will beat a lot of people, he's underrated, you hear Anton, Jurek, Mackey, don't forget about Hal. Mackey likely won't run....if he does, he'll run with Anton early and blow up...
If Anton runs to his full potential, nobody will beat him...I give him a 1 in 3 chance of running his race...
-CB
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