To me, the last 30 miles of a hundred mile race are what make the distance so special and so difficult to predict. From my perspective, running 50 to 70 miles at a crack, while difficult, is not a good predictor of hundred mile success. In fact, there are scores of runners with tremendous talent and ability at 50 miles or 100K who have never realized success at the hundred mile distance.
Why is this?
From my observations and experiences the single best way to prepare for the last 30 miles is to be well-prepared mentally. While this may sound trite, it is, nonetheless, the most significant factor that separates people in the last few hours of a hundred miler. All the training in the world cannot prepare the runner for the intense physical, emotional, and psychological fatigue that sets in after 12 hours on the trail. In order to meet the demands of that feeling the best runners do one (or more) of the following three things:
1. They run quite a few hundreds so that they are accustomed to and prepared for the pain and suffering that they encounter in the waning stages of a race.
2. They have figured out how, in training, to mimic the conditions that they will face in those last few hours.
3. They know how to find the right mental space during the last few hours of a hundred to drown out the pain and suffering and to revel in the experience.
I have only hit all three once, and that was in 2005. Western States that year was my best race ever.
Here I am at Mile 70 in 2005:
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The Seed asks: I am a fairly solid 50M runner but can't seem to collect much more than yellow buckles (or, if not States, the particular race's equivalent) when I step up to the 100 mile starting line. I do have one token silver buckle but it is more of an anomaly, an outlier if you will, compared to my standard performances which, among others, include the following: 2 DNF's at AC in '98 & '99 (I mention those for The Jiz's benefit); a 28 hour at Western, wait, I mean, States in '02 where I spent 2 1/2 hours in a beach chair at Hwy 49 aid (mile 93) and it wasn't because the aid station folks were in pear-adorned monokinis serving margis either; and a 30 hour Wasatch in '08 in which I got to Brighton (mile 75) in 18 hours (you do the math on that one). Is there any hope for me to have a 100 mile performance on par with say, a 7 hour High Sierra 50M or should I stick with the "warm-up ultras," as Karl calls them, and maybe try and become a permanent member of The Jiz's crew to make sure he never DNFs (because only Sky daddy the knows the ripfest that would ensue after that).
Seed, tough one. And, seeing as how you've been running these things for going on 20 years I am not sure I can be of any help. Of course, one of my fondest memories of my early ultrarunning career was running the 1996 Holcomb Valley 50K with you, Ben Hian and Tom Nielsen. If I recall correctly, the main focus of discussion during the early stages of that race when we were all suffering in the High Country was whether or not you felt the effects of altitude as much as we did given that you were, how to say, vertically challenged. Anyway, I've always admired you as a runner ever since then. Of course, there was also the time we were out all night on the Wasatch Course on a training run during the Outdoor Retailer show but that's another story.
In short, I think the best thing you can do is keep trying. Clearly, based on your 50 mile speed you should be running WS in 19 and change and WF in 24. The fact that you are not means you:
a. Have not figured out your nutrition routine yet.
b. Don't understand the importance of smart pacing.
c. Are a total and complete headcase.
Of course, it could also be some combination of all three. Sort of like this guy:
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And, don't hold your breath waiting for the "ripfest."
Horatio Lovejoy asks: I win almost any race I enter. I'm young, a well established entrepreneur, drive a nice car and have a great fiancee. What else should I be doing?
Horatio, what you should really do is quit this sport. Guys like you belong in the NBA or the NFL. And, if not that, at least in professional cycling or NASCAR. I mean, c'mon, this is a sport for self-indulgent, addicted, anti-social, introverted fruitcakes. Look around the next time you're at a starting line of an ultra (and please make sure it's the starting line and not the finish line:) What do you see? Do you see a cross-section of Middle America out there enjoying a day in the sun? Hell no! Rather, you see a bunch of people one step away from the loony bin. Given how successful and popular you are I can only imagine it is rough to be associated with such a group.
So, do yourself a favor and quit the sport. You've got it all anyway and now you can go out on top. Think about it, it really is the right thing to do.