Tuesday, April 27, 2010

WS 100 -- Men's Poll

The results from the first poll of the season are in and it appears as though the readers of this blog think it'll be a four-man race in June.

Geoff Roes was the top vote-getter with 57 votes and Hal Koerner and Anton Krupicka were next with 42 and 41 votes respectively. Killian Jornet rounded out the top-4 with 25 votes.

Of course, as the Speedgoat pointed out, Tony is not even in the race yet but I am assuming he'll snag a spot with a top-2 at Miwok on Saturday and then the stage will be set. So, I felt OK putting him in the poll.

I was surprised to see that Jez got only 3 votes and Leigh only 2 with Tsu, Zach, and Erik completely shut out. Is there anyone I missed?

We do, of course, have ample time for more prognostication and I'll post a couple more polls in the coming weeks but I'd be curious to hear from the readers of this blog who they think will be the surprises this year? Who will be the disappointments? Who are the dark horse top-10'ers and who are you sure will be in that top-10 when all is said and done?

It's been a really great spring season so far and the excitement is only beginning.

As for me, I am counting the minutes until Friday when I head to Michigan Bluff for a weekend of training on The Course.

11 comments:

FastED said...

You left out the whole PI-Smith crew: Nick Lewis and Clark, Matt Lonergan, and Josh Brimhall. All of these guys have the potential to go top 10! I would even venture to say that two of the top 5 spots go to a PI-Smith guy. Just sayin...

AJW said...

Well, so much for the PI-Smith guys flying under the radar! Now that the "team captain" has predicted top-5 for two of you the pressure is certainly on. Now the question is, which two???

o0625TaylorJ_Duraz said...

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Rod Bien said...

Andy Henshaw.

lebras_erwan said...

Hi,

This is my first comment here.
Looking at similar discussions on French newsgroup, poll result is very far from this one. Kilian Jornet is given ultra-favorite.
It looks like Kilian will aim at the course record, and he will sure put a lot of pressure on the field. Like last year, the first half will be very fast. But my guess is that unlike Scott and Dave last year, he will go to the end. Will someone be able to follow him and beat him ? Or will he experience trouble in the second half ? Anyway, tough job in perspective for Geoff Roes, Hal and Tony.
Kilian past performances speak for him. And unlike most of the previous European elite runners, that have tried the WS100, he is very strong in the heat. Now what worries me is that he has scheduled a 55K technical trail in France the previous week, so that will give him very short time for recovery (both race recovery and jet-lag recovery) and recognition. However, I guess he will still recognize the whole trail in the last 4-5 days before the race.

Also, Tsuyoshi is coming back. Last year it was his first attempt and he did an impressive 2nd place. He just won TNF China 100K last W.E..
And (like almost everyone here) he is always better in his second participation than in his first. The track, the heat, the aid stations are very different from what we have in Japan. His last year experience (and other experiences in the US races, such as TNF Endurance Challence S.F.) will give him a plus this year. Means, he's gonna run faster. Will that be enough to win ? I guess not but...

Jez also is coming back, after 3rd place last year...
May be 2010 will be the first year with a non-US runners win ?
Last year they made 2-3... That's already an important warning sign.
Just my 2 cents.

Brad said...

I agree that Killian is going to be tough to beat. I assume more people (veteran Western runners) don't give him better odds due to this being his first States. It's gonna be a heck of a race. I predict we may see the record fall if conditons are right.

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Collin said...

Tony will win.

Geoff is a great runner, but he is, in my opinion, more geared towards tougher courses. WS100 isn't an easy 100, but the winning times suggest that it is too fast for Geoff in my opinion. If you compare his times to Tony's on other comparable or even faster courses (American River, Miwok), Tony has him beat fair and square. Tony's 100 mile PR is many many hours faster. Geoff is most dominant when the footing is bad. He has proved himself at 50s recently, but I still think Tony has the edge.

Kilian is a fantastic mountain runner, but he has never run anything big particularly fast. Kilian is good at running uphill at very high elevation, but he has next to no speed, which is definitely a must at WS100. I put him in the top 5, but if he thinks he can hit the course record, he's going to be awfully sad come June 26th. Also, his schedule is way too packed lately (he's currently in the middle of a 1 week 700km run). He won't be fresh for the big day.

Hal is a great runner and he always seems to run best at WS100, but still, he's never beaten Tony in numerous races. I think the course experience will help him stick closer than he otherwise would, but nothing suggests that Hal can beat Tony, especially after Miwok, when Tony had what he considered to be a "bad day" and still beat Hal by a big margin.

My guess:
1. Tony
2. Geoff
3. Hal
4. Tsuyoshi
5. Kilian
6. Jez

Gary Robbins said...

Just checking in on things here and noticed there wasn't an open forum on the women's race. A poll yes, but I didn't notice a posting to comment on.
Just wanted to throw Tracy Garneau in there since she was overlooked in the poll.
Her results this year speak for themself, especially since she won her way in with a big win at AR50, and started the year by crushing the HURT CR.

Should be another fun year!
GR

Gary Robbins said...

Jez would be the main guy I feel is overlooked. He's run a sub 7hr 100k, handled himself nicely in his WS debut last year and ran more conservative than anyone else in the top ten. I'd be shocked if he didn't snag top three, even against the aformentioned studs.

GR

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